When Will the End Come?

When I was a kid I saw a movie that gave me nightmares: When Worlds Collide. It was probably about 1951 or 1952. I would have been five or six. As I remember it, the premise is that a planet was hurtling toward Earth, which was doomed. A small group was preparing to escape via spaceship to another planet. I don't remember all the details, but I can still recall my profound fear of the possibility that such a thing could happen and destroy the entire planet in an instant. Clearly, it left a strong impression on my young mind.

Of course, since then I've come to realize that when the end comes, it probably will not come in an instant, although I'm somewhat comforted to know that astronomers are carefully observing all known asteroids in Earth's orbit. As we now know, the poor old dinosaurs were victims of just such a calamity. We humans, on the other hand, have much more to fear from ourselves. If we don't actually blow ourselves up with nuclear bombs, we will almost certainly succumb to our gradual destruction of our environment. We're like children playing with matches and burning our house down.

But I've always been a pessimist on the subject of human survival. Perhaps it was that old movie, or just growing up in the fifties with our ever present fear of the bomb, but from an early age I assumed the end was near. Lately, however, what were once vague presentiments have become more established and informed beliefs. I know that many wish to remain in denial, and I don't blame them, but the evidence is mounting everywhere that our planet is going through a change of climate that will make life on Earth much less agreeable for human beings. Arguments about whether or not we have caused this through burning fossil fuels and other forms of carbon emission seems to me rather beside the point. I suppose it would have made sense to ask if there might be something we could do about it, some action we could take to mitigate or slow the rise of average temperatures, but I suspect now it's probably too late, even if everyone were to agree on what's to be done.

Well, as I say, I'm a pessimist. What's more I have no hostages to fortune. I'm concerned, and somewhat saddened, by the prospect that human life as I have known it will soon cease to exist, but then change is a constant in human history as well as in the history of the planet. The dinosaurs were doomed by climate change, but they made way for other species, just as the old Neanderthals were displaced and absorbed by us. Still, I suppose it's small comfort to those who fall away that other species have prospered on the planet that was no longer hospitable to them.

But rather than dwell on negatives, I've been thinking lately that I may actually live long enough to see some of this myself. Apparently, there's a summit going on this month in Paris where representatives from various nations have discovered that time is, indeed, running out. If global average temperatures continue to rise, even by a single degree celsius, we will likely see some profound displacements of human populations within the next two decades. This will come as no news to inhabitants of the disappearing islands of the Pacific or, much closer to home, the Chesapeake Bay. Sea levels are already rising, and some rather populous nations will quite soon be under water: Bangladesh comes most readily to mind. Residents of Florida might want to check some of these time tables for rising sea levels, just in case.

And it's not that we haven't observed warning signs. The flooding associated with Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans was perhaps partly the result of poor planning and management, but also an inevitable consequence of rising sea levels in the Gulf of Mexico. Rising sea levels and the prediction of more violent storms, brought on by rising temperatures in the oceans, is a recipe for more frequent disasters and eventual displacement of populations living in vulnerable low-lying areas. So far it has been human nature to see each of these things as unrelated acts of God, natural cycles. After all, there have been similar disasters before. But those who pay attention to trends in such matters have raised the alarm, and mere prudence would suggest it might be something worth paying attention to if you're looking to build your retirement dream home near a vulnerable sea shore.

I think about these things somewhat differently now that I've bought a house in the Texas hill country. This is historically a rather dry area, but also prone to flooding when the rains do eventually come. That was why they built those hill country lakes north of Austin: reservoirs for drinking water and flood control. When we moved back in the midst of one of the worst ever periods of drought, with the lakes falling to near record low levels, I was somewhat concerned, but just lately we've had some return of wetter weather and the lakes have risen to more normal levels, although they have not yet filled to their capacity. This brings some comfort, but also some reasons for concern. We've benefited from an El Nino that has brought us good spring and fall rains this year, but old timers know this is not normal. The area will remain historically dry and prone to droughts. Even this summer, between the periods of rain and flooding, we saw record dry weather and wildfires in the area. With so many newcomers arriving every day, it must have occurred to some of those who are paid to worry about such matters that sufficient water will remain a serious issue and only grow more serious with each passing year. The lakes are nearly full now, but for how long?

In the past I have reassured myself by remembering with each birthday that all of the most dire predictions have been for late in the century. As I neared seventy I felt I'd planned well, and would likely miss out on the worst of the coming calamities. I did install some rain collection tanks, for all the good they might be in a true emergency, but I have mainly counted on advancing age to take care of me. Now I'm not so sure. It has begun to dawn on me that I could actually begin to see some of the emerging calamities for human kind on planet Earth in my lifetime. And I don't know what I think about this possibility. On the one hand, I've always tried to find the path of least resistance and have sought comfort and ease rather than hardship and challenges. But on the other, I find I'm intrigued by seeing how this might actually play out. There will inevitably come a time when even the dullest and least attentive among us will realize that things are getting bad, and they will likely look around for someone to blame and someone to fix it. When disasters are looming is generally not the best time to look for change in leadership, but it's a common human trait. And hope springs eternal. Someone will no doubt offer to save us from ourselves. And when that time comes they're not going to look kindly on anyone who suggests that they should have been paying closer attention way back there in the old twentieth century when it might have done some good. Nor will they be in any mood to hear that what's bad for humans is probably good for some other species that will come along after us.